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9 Jan 2013

Nobody is trusted

Belarus politics

Anxious mood prevailing in the world outlook for 2013 and only in Belarus, there was little doubt in maintaining status quo.

While the Western media is trying to imagine what we are up to in  2013, only lazy did not mentioned similarity to 1913 - the last year of peace before the First World

But in fact, no other details are the same, except for the general anxiety: then, hardly anyone could have predicted the coming decade, through the Great Depression in the United States, and the world war and revolution were not yet known to historians. But now all the fears of the past easy to insert into the current agenda and to predict at least the next wave of the economic crisis.

Only on our marshes all is stable. Joked as recently as the end of the world in Belarus will not start, it will end in Belarus.

Published last week, the results of the * December Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies of the results of a national survey  showed that the head of the state's electoral rating has remained virtually unchanged in the autumn and winter of 2012. Despite the growth of the average wage in the country, the open question "If tomorrow presidential elections in Belarus will take place, for whom would you vote?" Only 31% of respondents expressed an intention to vote for Lukashenko.

It should be noted that the drop in ranking for the incumbent in 2011 was due to devaluation and a sharp fall in living standards. In September 2011, it has fallen to the lowest - 20.5%, and then was able to grow up a little bit, but the pre-crisis trims and has not reached (ratings of opposition leaders ranging from 4.8% to Andrei Sannikov and 4.6% at Vladimir Nyaklyaeu to 1.1% at Statkevich and 0.9% from Anatoly Lebedko).

Similarly varied levels of trust and confidence in the President. Experts began to speak of a "new majority": so far, the Belarusian regime enjoyed the support of the majority of the population, and now it has lost.
However, his opponents have not been able to find the same support. At the same time, the regime under favorable conditions may soon take the high 10 percentage points, and again to speak for the majority.
Interestingly, the 21.3% reported by an independent Belarusian sociologists that are in opposition to the current government, and the opposition parties trust 20%, and do not trust - 55.8%. President trust 39.1% and 49.1% do not trust.

Opponents of the regime were in a vicious circle: because Belarus has no public policy, people find it difficult to try to specific shapes the political will, they want to express. On the other hand, politicians are not able to articulate the interests of a particular group of the population, as in Belarus since 1996, they do not have the opportunity through the bodies of representative power to influence the adoption of important state decisions.

No democracy – so no trust to the fighters for democracy. If riots break out, that today it is impossible to predict, you can be sure that the masses wouldn’t choose Democrats, but people's tribunes, who, using populist slogans, will try to come to power.

Prove themselves  Democrats will be able only during election campaigns. Nearest campaign - local elections to be held no later than spring 2014.

In this regard, in 2013, we can hardly expect the consolidation of democratic political parties and civil society, as long as the object is not visible for the joint application of forces.

In opposition circles are aware of the crisis of legitimacy in the eyes of its own citizens, are considering various options for its resolution and purification of phantom structures and leaders, pretenders, but until a consensus in this regard was not reached.

Apparently, the opposition will try to use a year of respite to strengthen its structure, especially in the regions. It would be rational to go for the local elections with strong regional leaders and campaign use 2014 as a springboard for the presidential election in 2015.
However, the Internet is increasingly heard the voices of the opposition, who declare their intention to boycott the parliamentary elections to go for a boycott of all state institutions, as well as loyal to the authorities Trade Union Federation. They have not questioned the victory of his strategy of ignoring the elections to the House of Representatives: say, we did not participate in a farce, and we had the most.

Even easier they will not participate in the elections to the local councils, which has traditionally had a low voters turnout.

Both strategies have the opposition supporters who find it difficult to agree with each other. It is unlikely that the regime should be worried about it.

If so it goes on, the remaining 12 political prisoners in jail after serving their sentences, and the presidential election in 2015 of the official Minsk geopolitical pendulum could swing in the direction of improving relations with Europe. That's when we will again be political liberalization, and the opposition will have its say during the campaign - the number of candidates, and even in the debate between them.
So it was. And it will be?

*In December 2012, the independent sociologists conducted a national poll. The method of face-to-face interview surveyed 1,500 respondents aged 18 years and older, error does not exceed 3%. The survey results are published on the website IISEPS

By Pavlyuk Bykovski


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