Old Wine in New Bottles?

Tension in the relationship between Belarus and Russia has remained in the shadow of the more visible discord between Russia and Ukraine, stemming from the latter’s now-spoiled efforts to sign an Association Agreement with the EU at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius in November. The quarrel between Belarus and Russia arose from a bout of assertive behavior on the part of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. For those who assume Lukashenko long lost his freedom of action vis-à-vis Moscow, this was an unusual turn of events. Yet it is easy to explain. Lukashenko perceived an opportunity to exploit his status as Russia’s most valuable ally to increase economic subsidies, a necessity for securing reelection in 2015. Given Russia’s strong and publicly declared interest to rapidly proceed toward the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union, Lukashenko’s gambit is likely to succeed.

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Minsk needs money to support its paternalistic policy

Belarus economy

In 2012, the Belarusian economic model has reached peak of its current capability. Now the only way to keep the economic growth without structural reforms and avoid collapse in  the end of the year, such as currency crises as in 2009 or 2011, is attracting new borrowings  from abroad. This has already been said openly by senior Belarusian officials. But lately, in Minsk did not succeed in the relationship with the creditors, not only in the West but also in the structures of the EuroAsian Economic Community  (EAEC). What is the essence of the dispute and whether the parties will be able to agree?

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Between two armadas

The geopolitical location of Belarus makes it a field of confrontation of strategic interests of NATO and Russia

As the number of publications in the media, the Ministry of Defence of Lithuania urged Belarus and Russia for greater transparency in the implementation of planned for September of this year, the next large-scale Russian-Belarusian military exercises "West-2013".

Lithuanian party has been advised of their conduct, through the OSCE, but in addition to details, they expressed  hope that the NATO observers should be invited to. Such a proposal was reportedly made at the  meeting of Defence Minister Juozas Olyakasa with the ambassador of Belarus in Lithuania.

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Belarus review: November 2012

In November, Belarusian authorities have continued to discuss the topic of modernization. However, at the moment there are no specific proposals in what it may be made. Moreover, the plans that have already been announced, mainly belong to the category of just small changes. Generally, the longer the authorities discuss the subject, the more clearly it seems that talk of modernization is an attempt to repair relations with the West without fundamental changes in internal policy. Actually it is the repetition of the liberalization of 2008-2010.

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Fight and then reconcile

Oil dispute between Belarus and Russia

The problem of Russian oil delivery to Belarus in the fourth quarter seems settled. On November 2 meeting of the Council of Ministers of Belarus First Vice Premier Vladimir Semashko, who just returned from Moscow, said that Belarus should receive 5.3 million tons before the end of the year, and the annual volume of imported oil is expected to reach 21.5 million tons, as provided the fuel and energy balance of the Union State of Belarus and Russia. However, the issue of oil supply in 2013 is not yet resolved.

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Wheels for wings

Air force of Belarus

Belarusian-Russian relations still depends on military strategic and geopolitical interests of Moscow in exchange for economic benefits and preferences for the Belarusian regime.

As President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko clearly stated on October 16 at a press conference for Russian regional media, Belarus intends to use Russia's support to accelerate technical modernization of the army.

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